{ "title": "Checking the AI audit of Saez and Zucman's research: the 147 verdicts", "publisher": "SaneCite", "published": "2026-11-09", "page": "https://sanecite.com/saez-zucman-check", "audit": "https://saez-zucman-audit-replication.vercel.app", "audit_version_checked": "as saved 2026-10-29T20:43:15Z; re-checked against the 30 October 2026 revision on 31 October 2026, all 147 flags unchanged", "rank_note": "Ranks are ours. 1 to 30 are the random sample, checked first.", "journal_rule": "A work counts as a journal article when its citation gives a volume and page numbers.", "totals": { "flags": 147, "facts": { "right": 131, "partly right": 8, "wrong": 0, "could not check": 8 }, "headline_number": { "changes": 21, "does not change": 20, "depends on a disputed choice of method": 98, "could not check": 8 }, "changes_at_time": 17, "changes_later_data": 4, "no_change_claim_overstated": 17, "changes_ranks": [ 6, 29, 30, 31, 32, 40, 41, 43, 45, 48, 54, 91, 106, 111, 118, 124, 133, 142, 143, 145, 147 ], "code_or_spreadsheet_ranks": [ 40, 41, 43, 45, 48 ], "journal_article_ranks": [ 40, 43, 45, 91, 106, 111, 124, 147 ], "random_30_changes": 3, "moved_before_publishing": [ [ 62, "YES", "JUDGEMENT CALL" ], [ 84, "YES", "JUDGEMENT CALL" ], [ 127, "YES", "JUDGEMENT CALL" ], [ 130, "YES", "NO" ] ], "changes_in_copy_sent_29_oct": 24, "random_30_range_95": [ 3.5, 25.6 ], "audit_revision_30_oct": { "defect": 53, "contested choice": 94 }, "added_after_reply_window": [ [ 54, "JUDGEMENT CALL", "YES", "2026-11-09" ] ] }, "second_pass": { "date": "2026-11-09", "n": 99, "question": "Of the flags that depended on a disputed choice of method, how standard is the choice each one turns on?", "grade_note": "final_grade is the protocol's grade. The protocol grade DEFENSIBLE, NOT DISCLOSED is reported split by the disclosed field (amendment 2): disclosed true is 'defensible, stated in the paper' (the paper states the choice but does not show the result under the main alternative); disclosed false is 'defensible, not stated' (the paper does not state the choice). The two fields do not contradict each other.", "files": { "protocol": "https://sanecite.com/data/sz-check/second-pass/protocol.md", "amendments": "https://sanecite.com/data/sz-check/second-pass/amendments.md", "adjudication": "https://sanecite.com/data/sz-check/second-pass/adjudication.json", "totals": "https://sanecite.com/data/sz-check/second-pass/totals.json" }, "grades": [ { "rank": 1, "final_grade": "DEFENSIBLE, NOT DISCLOSED", "grade": "defensible, stated in the paper", "disclosed": true }, { "rank": 2, "final_grade": "DEFENSIBLE, NOT DISCLOSED", "grade": "defensible, not stated", "disclosed": false }, { "rank": 3, "final_grade": "DEFENSIBLE, NOT DISCLOSED", "grade": "defensible, stated in the paper", "disclosed": true }, { "rank": 4, "final_grade": "STANDARD", "grade": "standard", "disclosed": true }, { "rank": 5, "final_grade": "DEFENSIBLE, NOT DISCLOSED", "grade": "defensible, stated in the paper", "disclosed": true }, { "rank": 7, "final_grade": "STANDARD", "grade": "standard", "disclosed": true }, { "rank": 8, "final_grade": "DEFENSIBLE, NOT DISCLOSED", "grade": "defensible, not stated", "disclosed": false }, { "rank": 9, "final_grade": "CONTESTED", "grade": "contested", "disclosed": true }, { "rank": 10, "final_grade": "STANDARD", "grade": "standard", "disclosed": true }, { "rank": 12, "final_grade": "DEFENSIBLE, NOT DISCLOSED", "grade": "defensible, stated in the paper", "disclosed": true }, { "rank": 13, "final_grade": "DEFENSIBLE, NOT DISCLOSED", "grade": "defensible, stated in the paper", "disclosed": true }, { "rank": 14, "final_grade": "DEFENSIBLE, NOT DISCLOSED", "grade": "defensible, stated in the paper", "disclosed": true }, { "rank": 15, "final_grade": "DEFENSIBLE, NOT DISCLOSED", "grade": "defensible, stated in the paper", "disclosed": true }, { "rank": 18, "final_grade": "DEFENSIBLE, NOT DISCLOSED", "grade": "defensible, stated in the paper", "disclosed": true }, { "rank": 20, "final_grade": "DEFENSIBLE, NOT DISCLOSED", "grade": "defensible, stated in the paper", "disclosed": true }, { "rank": 21, "final_grade": "CANNOT TELL", "grade": "cannot tell", "disclosed": false }, { "rank": 22, "final_grade": "DEFENSIBLE, NOT DISCLOSED", "grade": "defensible, stated in the paper", "disclosed": true }, { "rank": 23, "final_grade": "DEFENSIBLE, NOT DISCLOSED", "grade": "defensible, not stated", "disclosed": false }, { "rank": 24, "final_grade": "STANDARD", "grade": "standard", "disclosed": true }, { "rank": 25, "final_grade": "DEFENSIBLE, NOT DISCLOSED", "grade": "defensible, stated in the paper", "disclosed": true }, { "rank": 26, "final_grade": "DEFENSIBLE, NOT DISCLOSED", "grade": "defensible, stated in the paper", "disclosed": true }, { "rank": 27, "final_grade": "DEFENSIBLE, NOT DISCLOSED", "grade": "defensible, stated in the paper", "disclosed": true }, { "rank": 28, "final_grade": "DEFENSIBLE, NOT DISCLOSED", "grade": "defensible, stated in the paper", "disclosed": true }, { "rank": 33, "final_grade": "QUESTIONABLE", "grade": "questionable", "disclosed": true }, { "rank": 34, "final_grade": "DEFENSIBLE, NOT DISCLOSED", "grade": "defensible, stated in the paper", "disclosed": true }, { "rank": 37, "final_grade": "DEFENSIBLE, NOT DISCLOSED", "grade": "defensible, stated in the paper", "disclosed": true }, { "rank": 38, "final_grade": "DEFENSIBLE, NOT DISCLOSED", "grade": "defensible, stated in the paper", "disclosed": true }, { "rank": 39, "final_grade": "DEFENSIBLE, NOT DISCLOSED", "grade": "defensible, not stated", "disclosed": false }, { "rank": 42, "final_grade": "CANNOT TELL", "grade": "cannot tell", "disclosed": false }, { "rank": 46, "final_grade": "STANDARD", "grade": "standard", "disclosed": true }, { "rank": 47, "final_grade": "DEFENSIBLE, NOT DISCLOSED", "grade": "defensible, stated in the paper", "disclosed": true }, { "rank": 49, "final_grade": "DEFENSIBLE, NOT DISCLOSED", "grade": "defensible, stated in the paper", "disclosed": true }, { "rank": 51, "final_grade": "QUESTIONABLE", "grade": "questionable", "disclosed": false }, { "rank": 52, "final_grade": "DEFENSIBLE, NOT DISCLOSED", "grade": "defensible, stated in the paper", "disclosed": true }, { "rank": 53, "final_grade": "DEFENSIBLE, NOT DISCLOSED", "grade": "defensible, stated in the paper", "disclosed": true }, { "rank": 54, "final_grade": "QUESTIONABLE", "grade": "questionable", "disclosed": false }, { "rank": 55, "final_grade": "DEFENSIBLE, NOT DISCLOSED", "grade": "defensible, stated in the paper", "disclosed": true }, { "rank": 60, "final_grade": "DEFENSIBLE, NOT DISCLOSED", "grade": "defensible, stated in the paper", "disclosed": true }, { "rank": 61, "final_grade": "DEFENSIBLE, NOT DISCLOSED", "grade": "defensible, stated in the paper", "disclosed": true }, { "rank": 62, "final_grade": "DEFENSIBLE, NOT DISCLOSED", "grade": "defensible, stated in the paper", "disclosed": true }, { "rank": 63, "final_grade": "STANDARD", "grade": "standard", "disclosed": true }, { "rank": 64, "final_grade": "STANDARD", "grade": "standard", "disclosed": true }, { "rank": 65, "final_grade": "DEFENSIBLE, NOT DISCLOSED", "grade": "defensible, stated in the paper", "disclosed": true }, { "rank": 66, "final_grade": "STANDARD", "grade": "standard", "disclosed": true }, { "rank": 67, "final_grade": "DEFENSIBLE, NOT DISCLOSED", "grade": "defensible, stated in the paper", "disclosed": true }, { "rank": 68, "final_grade": "DEFENSIBLE, NOT DISCLOSED", "grade": "defensible, stated in the paper", "disclosed": true }, { "rank": 70, "final_grade": "DEFENSIBLE, NOT DISCLOSED", "grade": "defensible, stated in the paper", "disclosed": true }, { "rank": 71, "final_grade": "DEFENSIBLE, NOT DISCLOSED", "grade": "defensible, stated in the paper", "disclosed": true }, { "rank": 72, "final_grade": "DEFENSIBLE, NOT DISCLOSED", "grade": "defensible, stated in the paper", "disclosed": true }, { "rank": 73, "final_grade": "DEFENSIBLE, NOT DISCLOSED", "grade": "defensible, stated in the paper", "disclosed": true }, { "rank": 74, "final_grade": "DEFENSIBLE, NOT DISCLOSED", "grade": "defensible, stated in the paper", "disclosed": true }, { "rank": 75, "final_grade": "QUESTIONABLE", "grade": "questionable", "disclosed": true }, { "rank": 82, "final_grade": "DEFENSIBLE, NOT DISCLOSED", "grade": "defensible, stated in the paper", "disclosed": true }, { "rank": 84, "final_grade": "QUESTIONABLE", "grade": "questionable", "disclosed": false }, { "rank": 85, "final_grade": "CANNOT TELL", "grade": "cannot tell", "disclosed": false }, { "rank": 86, "final_grade": "DEFENSIBLE, NOT DISCLOSED", "grade": "defensible, stated in the paper", "disclosed": true }, { "rank": 87, "final_grade": "DEFENSIBLE, NOT DISCLOSED", "grade": "defensible, stated in the paper", "disclosed": true }, { "rank": 88, "final_grade": "DEFENSIBLE, NOT DISCLOSED", "grade": "defensible, stated in the paper", "disclosed": true }, { "rank": 92, "final_grade": "DEFENSIBLE, NOT DISCLOSED", "grade": "defensible, stated in 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"STANDARD", "grade": "standard", "disclosed": true }, { "rank": 107, "final_grade": "DEFENSIBLE, NOT DISCLOSED", "grade": "defensible, stated in the paper", "disclosed": true }, { "rank": 108, "final_grade": "DEFENSIBLE, NOT DISCLOSED", "grade": "defensible, stated in the paper", "disclosed": true }, { "rank": 110, "final_grade": "DEFENSIBLE, NOT DISCLOSED", "grade": "defensible, stated in the paper", "disclosed": true }, { "rank": 112, "final_grade": "DEFENSIBLE, NOT DISCLOSED", "grade": "defensible, stated in the paper", "disclosed": true }, { "rank": 113, "final_grade": "DEFENSIBLE, NOT DISCLOSED", "grade": "defensible, stated in the paper", "disclosed": true }, { "rank": 115, "final_grade": "DEFENSIBLE, NOT DISCLOSED", "grade": "defensible, stated in the paper", "disclosed": true }, { "rank": 116, "final_grade": "CANNOT TELL", "grade": "cannot tell", "disclosed": false }, { "rank": 117, "final_grade": "DEFENSIBLE, NOT DISCLOSED", "grade": "defensible, stated in the paper", "disclosed": true }, { "rank": 119, "final_grade": "DEFENSIBLE, NOT DISCLOSED", "grade": "defensible, stated in the paper", "disclosed": true }, { "rank": 120, "final_grade": "DEFENSIBLE, NOT DISCLOSED", "grade": "defensible, stated in the paper", "disclosed": true }, { "rank": 121, "final_grade": "DEFENSIBLE, NOT DISCLOSED", "grade": "defensible, stated in the paper", "disclosed": true }, { "rank": 122, "final_grade": "DEFENSIBLE, NOT DISCLOSED", "grade": "defensible, not stated", "disclosed": false }, { "rank": 123, "final_grade": "DEFENSIBLE, NOT DISCLOSED", "grade": "defensible, stated in the paper", "disclosed": true }, { "rank": 125, "final_grade": "DEFENSIBLE, NOT DISCLOSED", "grade": "defensible, not stated", "disclosed": false }, { "rank": 126, "final_grade": "DEFENSIBLE, NOT DISCLOSED", "grade": "defensible, stated in the paper", "disclosed": true }, { "rank": 127, "final_grade": "QUESTIONABLE", "grade": "questionable", "disclosed": true }, { "rank": 128, "final_grade": 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139, "final_grade": "DEFENSIBLE, NOT DISCLOSED", "grade": "defensible, stated in the paper", "disclosed": true }, { "rank": 140, "final_grade": "DEFENSIBLE, NOT DISCLOSED", "grade": "defensible, not stated", "disclosed": false }, { "rank": 141, "final_grade": "DEFENSIBLE, NOT DISCLOSED", "grade": "defensible, stated in the paper", "disclosed": true }, { "rank": 144, "final_grade": "CANNOT TELL", "grade": "cannot tell", "disclosed": false }, { "rank": 146, "final_grade": "DEFENSIBLE, NOT DISCLOSED", "grade": "defensible, not stated", "disclosed": false } ], "totals": { "grades": { "standard": { "count": 11, "of": 99, "wilson95_pct": [ 6.3, 18.8 ] }, "defensible, stated in the paper": { "count": 61, "of": 99, "wilson95_pct": [ 51.8, 70.6 ] }, "defensible, not stated": { "count": 9, "of": 99, "wilson95_pct": [ 4.9, 16.4 ] }, "questionable": { "count": 11, "of": 99, "wilson95_pct": [ 6.3, 18.8 ] }, "cannot tell": { "count": 6, "of": 99, "wilson95_pct": [ 2.8, 12.6 ] }, "contested": { "count": 1, "of": 99, "wilson95_pct": [ 0.2, 5.5 ] } }, "reader_agreement": { "count": 61, "of": 99 }, "reclassified_to_changes": [ 54 ] } }, "flags": [ { "rank": 1, "in_random_30": true, "authors": "Gabriel Zucman", "authors_short": "Zucman", "title": "Taxing across Borders: Tracking Personal Wealth and Corporate Profits", "citation": "Journal of Economic Perspectives 28(4): 121-148", "work_url": null, "audit_flag_id": "zucman-2014-taxing-across-borders#2", "audit_page": "https://saez-zucman-audit-replication.vercel.app/original/p/zucman-2014-taxing-across-borders.html", "facts": "right", "headline_number": "depends on a disputed choice of method", "shown_with": null, "claim_overstated": null, "our_note": null, "second_pass_grade": "defensible, stated in the paper", "added_note": null }, { "rank": 2, "in_random_30": true, "authors": "Emmanuel Saez, Gabriel Zucman", "authors_short": "Saez and Zucman", "title": "The Rise of Income and Wealth Inequality in America: Evidence from Distributional Macroeconomic Accounts", "citation": "Journal of Economic Perspectives 34(4): 3-26", "work_url": null, "audit_flag_id": "saez-zucman-2020-rise-income-wealth-inequality-america#2", "audit_page": "https://saez-zucman-audit-replication.vercel.app/original/p/saez-zucman-2020-rise-income-wealth-inequality-america.html", "facts": "right", "headline_number": "depends on a disputed choice of method", "shown_with": null, "claim_overstated": null, "our_note": null, "second_pass_grade": "defensible, not stated", "added_note": null }, { "rank": 3, "in_random_30": true, "authors": "Niels Johannesen, Gabriel Zucman", "authors_short": "Johannesen and Zucman", "title": "The End of Bank Secrecy? An Evaluation of the G20 Tax Haven Crackdown", "citation": "American Economic Journal: Economic Policy 6(1): 65-91", "work_url": null, "audit_flag_id": "johannesen-zucman-2014-end-of-bank-secrecy#1", "audit_page": "https://saez-zucman-audit-replication.vercel.app/original/p/johannesen-zucman-2014-end-of-bank-secrecy.html", "facts": "right", "headline_number": "depends on a disputed choice of method", "shown_with": null, "claim_overstated": null, "our_note": null, "second_pass_grade": "defensible, stated in the paper", "added_note": null }, { "rank": 4, "in_random_30": true, "authors": "Thomas Piketty, Gabriel Zucman", "authors_short": "Piketty and Zucman", "title": "Wealth and Inheritance in the Long Run", "citation": "In A.B. Atkinson and F. Bourguignon (eds.), Handbook of Income Distribution, vol. 2B, ch. 15: 1303-1368, North-Holland", "work_url": null, "audit_flag_id": "piketty-zucman-2015-wealth-inheritance-long-run#3", "audit_page": "https://saez-zucman-audit-replication.vercel.app/original/p/piketty-zucman-2015-wealth-inheritance-long-run.html", "facts": "partly right", "headline_number": "depends on a disputed choice of method", "shown_with": null, "claim_overstated": null, "our_note": "The flag says the authors gave no response; the chapter itself answers the gift-incentive point (p. 1337).", "second_pass_grade": "standard", "added_note": null }, { "rank": 5, "in_random_30": true, "authors": "Emmanuel Saez, Gabriel Zucman", "authors_short": "Saez and Zucman", "title": "Top Wealth in America: A Reexamination", "citation": "NBER Working Paper 30396, August 2022", "work_url": null, "audit_flag_id": "saez-zucman-2022-top-wealth-america-reexamination#2", "audit_page": "https://saez-zucman-audit-replication.vercel.app/original/p/saez-zucman-2022-top-wealth-america-reexamination.html", "facts": "right", "headline_number": "depends on a disputed choice of method", "shown_with": null, "claim_overstated": null, "our_note": null, "second_pass_grade": "defensible, stated in the paper", "added_note": null }, { "rank": 6, "in_random_30": true, "authors": "Theresa Neef, Panayiotis Nicolaides, Lucas Chancel, Thomas Piketty, Gabriel Zucman", "authors_short": "Neef et al.", "title": "Effective Sanctions against Oligarchs and the Role of a European Asset Registry", "citation": "EU Tax Observatory / World Inequality Lab Note, March 2022", "work_url": "https://taxobservatory.world/www-site/uploads/2022/03/Note_Effecttive-sanctions-against-oligarcs-and-the-role-of-a-European-asset-Registry_EU-Tax_-WIL_March-2022.pdf", "audit_flag_id": "neef-nicolaides-chancel-piketty-zucman-2022-sanctions-oligarchs-european-asset-registry#1", "audit_page": "https://saez-zucman-audit-replication.vercel.app/original/p/neef-nicolaides-chancel-piketty-zucman-2022-sanctions-oligarchs-european-asset-registry.html", "facts": "right", "headline_number": "changes", "shown_with": "material available at the time", "claim_overstated": null, "our_note": "The note says about half of Russian household wealth is held abroad; the study it cites gives about a quarter (24%) of total wealth. The note's summary claim survives.", "second_pass_grade": null, "added_note": null }, { "rank": 7, "in_random_30": true, "authors": "Manon François, Carlos Oliveira, Bluebery Planterose, Gabriel Zucman", "authors_short": "François et al.", "title": "A Modern Excess Profit Tax", "citation": "EU Tax Observatory Working Paper No. 5 (Sept 2022); updated EU Tax Observatory Note (Nov 2022)", "work_url": null, "audit_flag_id": "francois-oliveira-planterose-zucman-2022-modern-excess-profit-tax#2", "audit_page": "https://saez-zucman-audit-replication.vercel.app/original/p/francois-oliveira-planterose-zucman-2022-modern-excess-profit-tax.html", "facts": "right", "headline_number": "depends on a disputed choice of method", "shown_with": null, "claim_overstated": null, "our_note": null, "second_pass_grade": "standard", "added_note": null }, { "rank": 8, "in_random_30": true, "authors": "Gabriel Zucman", "authors_short": "Zucman", "title": "Global Wealth Inequality", "citation": "Annual Review of Economics 11: 109-138", "work_url": null, "audit_flag_id": "zucman-2019-global-wealth-inequality#1", "audit_page": "https://saez-zucman-audit-replication.vercel.app/original/p/zucman-2019-global-wealth-inequality.html", "facts": "right", "headline_number": "depends on a disputed choice of method", "shown_with": null, "claim_overstated": null, "our_note": null, "second_pass_grade": "defensible, not stated", "added_note": null }, { "rank": 9, "in_random_30": true, "authors": "Emmanuel Saez, Gabriel Zucman", "authors_short": "Saez and Zucman", "title": "The Triumph of Injustice: How the Rich Dodge Taxes and How to Make Them Pay", "citation": "New York: W.W. Norton, October 2019", "work_url": null, "audit_flag_id": "saez-zucman-2019-triumph-of-injustice#2", "audit_page": "https://saez-zucman-audit-replication.vercel.app/original/p/saez-zucman-2019-triumph-of-injustice.html", "facts": "right", "headline_number": "depends on a disputed choice of method", "shown_with": null, "claim_overstated": null, "our_note": null, "second_pass_grade": "contested", "added_note": null }, { "rank": 10, "in_random_30": true, "authors": "Anthony B. Atkinson, Thomas Piketty, Emmanuel Saez", "authors_short": "Atkinson et al.", "title": "Top Incomes in the Long Run of History", "citation": "Journal of Economic Literature 49(1): 3-71", "work_url": null, "audit_flag_id": "atkinson-etal-2011-top-incomes-long-run-history#1", "audit_page": "https://saez-zucman-audit-replication.vercel.app/original/p/atkinson-etal-2011-top-incomes-long-run-history.html", "facts": "partly right", "headline_number": "depends on a disputed choice of method", "shown_with": null, "claim_overstated": null, "our_note": "Canada's rise is about 7.4 to 7.75 points, not 7.8, so the US rise is marginally larger, not 'no larger'. Minor.", "second_pass_grade": "standard", "added_note": null }, { "rank": 11, "in_random_30": true, "authors": "Camille Landais, Thomas Piketty, Emmanuel Saez", "authors_short": "Landais et al.", "title": "Réponse de Camille Landais, Thomas Piketty et Emmanuel Saez", "citation": "Travail, genre et sociétés n° 27 (2012/1): 177-181", "work_url": null, "audit_flag_id": "landais-piketty-saez-2012-reponse-tgs#1", "audit_page": "https://saez-zucman-audit-replication.vercel.app/original/p/landais-piketty-saez-2012-reponse-tgs.html", "facts": "could not check", "headline_number": "could not check", "shown_with": null, "claim_overstated": null, "our_note": null, "second_pass_grade": null, "added_note": null }, { "rank": 12, "in_random_30": true, "authors": "Camille Landais, Thomas Piketty, Emmanuel Saez", "authors_short": "Landais et al.", "title": "Pour une révolution fiscale : un impôt sur le revenu pour le XXIe siècle", "citation": "Paris: Le Seuil (La République des idées), 2011 (about 140 pages)", "work_url": null, "audit_flag_id": "landais-piketty-saez-2011-revolution-fiscale#2", "audit_page": "https://saez-zucman-audit-replication.vercel.app/original/p/landais-piketty-saez-2011-revolution-fiscale.html", "facts": "could not check", "headline_number": "depends on a disputed choice of method", "shown_with": null, "claim_overstated": null, "our_note": null, "second_pass_grade": "defensible, stated in the paper", "added_note": null }, { "rank": 13, "in_random_30": true, "authors": "Raj Chetty, Nathaniel Hendren, Patrick Kline, Emmanuel Saez", "authors_short": "Chetty et al.", "title": "Where is the Land of Opportunity? The Geography of Intergenerational Mobility in the United States", "citation": "Quarterly Journal of Economics 129(4): 1553-1623", "work_url": null, "audit_flag_id": "chetty-etal-2014-land-of-opportunity-geography#1", "audit_page": "https://saez-zucman-audit-replication.vercel.app/original/p/chetty-etal-2014-land-of-opportunity-geography.html", "facts": "right", "headline_number": "depends on a disputed choice of method", "shown_with": null, "claim_overstated": null, "our_note": null, "second_pass_grade": "defensible, stated in the paper", "added_note": null }, { "rank": 14, "in_random_30": true, "authors": "Gabriel Zucman", "authors_short": "Zucman", "title": "Taxing across Borders: Tracking Personal Wealth and Corporate Profits", "citation": "Journal of Economic Perspectives 28(4): 121-148", "work_url": null, "audit_flag_id": "zucman-2014-taxing-across-borders#4", "audit_page": "https://saez-zucman-audit-replication.vercel.app/original/p/zucman-2014-taxing-across-borders.html", "facts": "right", "headline_number": "depends on a disputed choice of method", "shown_with": null, "claim_overstated": null, "our_note": null, "second_pass_grade": "defensible, stated in the paper", "added_note": null }, { "rank": 15, "in_random_30": true, "authors": "Henrik Jacobsen Kleven, Camille Landais, Emmanuel Saez, Esben Anton Schultz", "authors_short": "Kleven et al.", "title": "Migration and Wage Effects of Taxing Top Earners: Evidence from the Foreigners' Tax Scheme in Denmark", "citation": "Quarterly Journal of Economics 129(1): 333-378", "work_url": null, "audit_flag_id": "kleven-etal-2014-danish-foreigners-tax-scheme#1", "audit_page": "https://saez-zucman-audit-replication.vercel.app/original/p/kleven-etal-2014-danish-foreigners-tax-scheme.html", "facts": "right", "headline_number": "depends on a disputed choice of method", "shown_with": null, "claim_overstated": null, "our_note": null, "second_pass_grade": "defensible, stated in the paper", "added_note": null }, { "rank": 16, "in_random_30": true, "authors": "Idann Gidron, Ludvig Wier, Gabriel Zucman", "authors_short": "Gidron et al.", "title": "Global Profit Shifting, 1975-2023 (earlier: Global Profit Shifting, 1975-2019)", "citation": "NBER WP 30673 / UNU-WIDER WP 2022/121 (2022), revised July 2026; R&R Review of Economics and Statistics", "work_url": null, "audit_flag_id": "wier-zucman-2022-global-profit-shifting#1", "audit_page": "https://saez-zucman-audit-replication.vercel.app/original/p/wier-zucman-2022-global-profit-shifting.html", "facts": "right", "headline_number": "does not change", "shown_with": null, "claim_overstated": true, "our_note": "No headline number changes. The abstract's 'peaked, then declined' timing is contradicted by the paper's own Table A1.", "second_pass_grade": null, "added_note": null }, { "rank": 17, "in_random_30": true, "authors": "Sebastián Bustos, Dina Pomeranz, José Vila-Belda, Gabriel Zucman", "authors_short": "Bustos et al.", "title": "Challenges of Monitoring Tax Compliance by Multinational Firms: Evidence from Chile", "citation": "AEA Papers and Proceedings 109: 500-505", "work_url": null, "audit_flag_id": "bustos-pomeranz-vilabelda-zucman-2019-monitoring-tax-compliance-multinationals-chile#1", "audit_page": "https://saez-zucman-audit-replication.vercel.app/original/p/bustos-pomeranz-vilabelda-zucman-2019-monitoring-tax-compliance-multinationals-chile.html", "facts": "right", "headline_number": "does not change", "shown_with": null, "claim_overstated": false, "our_note": "No number changes. 'Effective tax rate' is not defined in the paper, and on a payroll reading the claim holds.", "second_pass_grade": null, "added_note": null }, { "rank": 18, "in_random_30": true, "authors": "Camille Landais, Thomas Piketty, Emmanuel Saez", "authors_short": "Landais et al.", "title": "Pour une révolution fiscale : un impôt sur le revenu pour le XXIe siècle", "citation": "Paris: Le Seuil (La République des idées), 2011 (about 140 pages)", "work_url": null, "audit_flag_id": "landais-piketty-saez-2011-revolution-fiscale#1", "audit_page": "https://saez-zucman-audit-replication.vercel.app/original/p/landais-piketty-saez-2011-revolution-fiscale.html", "facts": "right", "headline_number": "depends on a disputed choice of method", "shown_with": null, "claim_overstated": null, "our_note": null, "second_pass_grade": "defensible, stated in the paper", "added_note": null }, { "rank": 19, "in_random_30": true, "authors": "Emmanuel Saez", "authors_short": "Saez", "title": "Taxes and International Mobility of Talent", "citation": "NBER Reporter 2014 No. 2 (research summary)", "work_url": null, "audit_flag_id": "saez-2014-taxes-international-mobility-talent#1", "audit_page": "https://saez-zucman-audit-replication.vercel.app/original/p/saez-2014-taxes-international-mobility-talent.html", "facts": "could not check", "headline_number": "could not check", "shown_with": null, "claim_overstated": null, "our_note": null, "second_pass_grade": null, "added_note": null }, { "rank": 20, "in_random_30": true, "authors": "Pierre Bachas, Helena Hernández, Valentina Laverde, Juliana Londoño-Vélez, Gabriel Zucman", "authors_short": "Bachas et al.", "title": "Automatic Exchanges of Information and Offshore Tax Compliance: Evidence from Colombia", "citation": "Working paper, June 2026 (SSRN 7122974)", "work_url": null, "audit_flag_id": "bachas-hernandez-laverde-londonovelez-zucman-2026-aeoi-colombia#3", "audit_page": "https://saez-zucman-audit-replication.vercel.app/original/p/bachas-hernandez-laverde-londonovelez-zucman-2026-aeoi-colombia.html", "facts": "right", "headline_number": "depends on a disputed choice of method", "shown_with": null, "claim_overstated": null, "our_note": null, "second_pass_grade": "defensible, stated in the paper", "added_note": null }, { "rank": 21, "in_random_30": true, "authors": "Emmanuel Saez", "authors_short": "Saez", "title": "Should We Tax Wealth?", "citation": "In O. Blanchard and D. Rodrik (eds.), Combating Inequality: Rethinking Government's Role, Cambridge MA: MIT Press, 2021, pp. 153-160", "work_url": null, "audit_flag_id": "saez-2021-should-we-tax-wealth#1", "audit_page": "https://saez-zucman-audit-replication.vercel.app/original/p/saez-2021-should-we-tax-wealth.html", "facts": "right", "headline_number": "depends on a disputed choice of method", "shown_with": null, "claim_overstated": null, "our_note": null, "second_pass_grade": "cannot tell", "added_note": null }, { "rank": 22, "in_random_30": true, "authors": "Hjalte Fejerskov Boas, Niels Johannesen, Claus Thustrup Kreiner, Lauge Truels Larsen, Gabriel Zucman", "authors_short": "Boas et al.", "title": "Taxing Capital in a Globalized World: The Effects of Automatic Information Exchange", "citation": "NBER WP 32714 (July 2024), revised September 2026", "work_url": null, "audit_flag_id": "boas-johannesen-kreiner-larsen-zucman-2024-automatic-information-exchange#2", "audit_page": "https://saez-zucman-audit-replication.vercel.app/original/p/boas-johannesen-kreiner-larsen-zucman-2024-automatic-information-exchange.html", "facts": "right", "headline_number": "depends on a disputed choice of method", "shown_with": null, "claim_overstated": null, "our_note": null, "second_pass_grade": "defensible, stated in the paper", "added_note": null }, { "rank": 23, "in_random_30": true, "authors": "Facundo Alvaredo, Lucas Chancel, Thomas Piketty, Emmanuel Saez, Gabriel Zucman", "authors_short": "Alvaredo et al.", "title": "Global Inequality Dynamics: New Findings from WID.world", "citation": "American Economic Review: Papers & Proceedings 107(5): 404-409", "work_url": null, "audit_flag_id": "alvaredo-chancel-piketty-saez-zucman-2017-global-inequality-dynamics#1", "audit_page": "https://saez-zucman-audit-replication.vercel.app/original/p/alvaredo-chancel-piketty-saez-zucman-2017-global-inequality-dynamics.html", "facts": "right", "headline_number": "depends on a disputed choice of method", "shown_with": null, "claim_overstated": null, "our_note": null, "second_pass_grade": "defensible, not stated", "added_note": null }, { "rank": 24, "in_random_30": true, "authors": "Raj Chetty, Nathaniel Hendren, Patrick Kline, Emmanuel Saez", "authors_short": "Chetty et al.", "title": "Economic Mobility", "citation": "State of the States: The Poverty and Inequality Report, Pathways Magazine (Stanford Center on Poverty and Inequality), Special Issue 2015, pp. 55-60", "work_url": null, "audit_flag_id": "chetty-etal-2015-economic-mobility-pathways#1", "audit_page": "https://saez-zucman-audit-replication.vercel.app/original/p/chetty-etal-2015-economic-mobility-pathways.html", "facts": "right", "headline_number": "depends on a disputed choice of method", "shown_with": null, "claim_overstated": null, "our_note": null, "second_pass_grade": "standard", "added_note": null }, { "rank": 25, "in_random_30": true, "authors": "Thomas Piketty, Emmanuel Saez, Gabriel Zucman", "authors_short": "Piketty et al.", "title": "Simplified Distributional National Accounts", "citation": "AEA Papers and Proceedings 109: 289-295", "work_url": null, "audit_flag_id": "piketty-saez-zucman-2019-simplified-dina#1", "audit_page": "https://saez-zucman-audit-replication.vercel.app/original/p/piketty-saez-zucman-2019-simplified-dina.html", "facts": "partly right", "headline_number": "depends on a disputed choice of method", "shown_with": null, "claim_overstated": null, "our_note": "Two figures reproduce, but the key re-ranking term does not: we get +0.64 to +0.97 points for 2016, not +2.68, and an overlap of 81-84%, not 63-79%. The flag does not state its data version, so part of the gap may be method.", "second_pass_grade": "defensible, stated in the paper", "added_note": null }, { "rank": 26, "in_random_30": true, "authors": "David Card, Alexandre Mas, Enrico Moretti, Emmanuel Saez", "authors_short": "Card et al.", "title": "Inequality at Work: The Effect of Peer Salaries on Job Satisfaction", "citation": "American Economic Review 102(6): 2981-3003", "work_url": null, "audit_flag_id": "card-etal-2012-inequality-at-work#1", "audit_page": "https://saez-zucman-audit-replication.vercel.app/original/p/card-etal-2012-inequality-at-work.html", "facts": "right", "headline_number": "depends on a disputed choice of method", "shown_with": null, "claim_overstated": null, "our_note": null, "second_pass_grade": "defensible, stated in the paper", "added_note": null }, { "rank": 27, "in_random_30": true, "authors": "Pierre Bachas, Helena Hernández, Valentina Laverde, Juliana Londoño-Vélez, Gabriel Zucman", "authors_short": "Bachas et al.", "title": "Automatic Exchanges of Information and Offshore Tax Compliance: Evidence from Colombia", "citation": "Working paper, June 2026 (SSRN 7122974)", "work_url": null, "audit_flag_id": "bachas-hernandez-laverde-londonovelez-zucman-2026-aeoi-colombia#2", "audit_page": "https://saez-zucman-audit-replication.vercel.app/original/p/bachas-hernandez-laverde-londonovelez-zucman-2026-aeoi-colombia.html", "facts": "right", "headline_number": "depends on a disputed choice of method", "shown_with": null, "claim_overstated": null, "our_note": null, "second_pass_grade": "defensible, stated in the paper", "added_note": null }, { "rank": 28, "in_random_30": true, "authors": "Katrine Jakobsen, Kristian Jakobsen, Henrik Kleven, Gabriel Zucman", "authors_short": "Jakobsen et al.", "title": "Wealth Taxation and Wealth Accumulation: Theory and Evidence from Denmark", "citation": "Quarterly Journal of Economics 135(1): 329-388", "work_url": null, "audit_flag_id": "jakobsen-jakobsen-kleven-zucman-2020-wealth-taxation-denmark#4", "audit_page": "https://saez-zucman-audit-replication.vercel.app/original/p/jakobsen-jakobsen-kleven-zucman-2020-wealth-taxation-denmark.html", "facts": "partly right", "headline_number": "depends on a disputed choice of method", "shown_with": null, "claim_overstated": null, "our_note": "The flag says the paper reports only the top of the range; Table II prints the raw estimate (0.144) beside the adjusted one (0.312).", "second_pass_grade": "defensible, stated in the paper", "added_note": null }, { "rank": 29, "in_random_30": true, "authors": "David Gamage, Emmanuel Saez, Darien Shanske", "authors_short": "Gamage et al.", "title": "The NY Billionaire Mark-to-Market Tax Act: Revenue, Economic, and Constitutional Analysis", "citation": "Policy report on New York bill S8277B (2019-20), 1 September 2020; SSRN 3766547", "work_url": "https://eml.berkeley.edu/~saez/NYbillionairetax.pdf", "audit_flag_id": "gamage-saez-shanske-2020-ny-billionaire-mark-to-market#1", "audit_page": "https://saez-zucman-audit-replication.vercel.app/original/p/gamage-saez-shanske-2020-ny-billionaire-mark-to-market.html", "facts": "right", "headline_number": "changes", "shown_with": "material available at the time", "claim_overstated": null, "our_note": "The bill caps the gains counted as income, not the tax. With the report's own inputs, 2020 revenue is about $9.0 billion, not $23.2 billion; most of the rest comes due in later years.", "second_pass_grade": null, "added_note": null }, { "rank": 30, "in_random_30": true, "authors": "Vicente Silva, Quentin Parrinello, Lamia Oualalou, Carmen Durrer de La Sota, Carlos Salgado, Juan Vergara, Gabriel Zucman", "authors_short": "Silva et al.", "title": "Progressive Taxation and Inequality: Minimum Taxation of High-Net-Worth Individuals in Latin America and the Caribbean", "citation": "International Tax Observatory report commissioned by Brazil under the PTLAC Presidency, April 2026", "work_url": "https://taxobservatory.world/www-site/uploads/2026/04/PTLAC-ENG-23042026-2.pdf", "audit_flag_id": "silva-et-al-2026-minimum-taxation-hnwi-latin-america-caribbean#2", "audit_page": "https://saez-zucman-audit-replication.vercel.app/original/p/silva-et-al-2026-minimum-taxation-hnwi-latin-america-caribbean.html", "facts": "right", "headline_number": "changes", "shown_with": "material available at the time", "claim_overstated": null, "our_note": "The report's own revenue figures cannot lift the top rate in Brazil to 50% (about 34%, at most 46%). The Chile part was not checked.", "second_pass_grade": null, "added_note": null }, { "rank": 31, "in_random_30": false, "authors": "Annette Alstadsæter, Matthew Collin, Bluebery Planterose, Gabriel Zucman, Andreas Økland", "authors_short": "Alstadsæter et al.", "title": "Foreign Investment in the Dubai Housing Market, 2020-2024", "citation": "EU Tax Observatory Note, May 2024", "work_url": "https://taxobservatory.world/www-site/uploads/2024/05/Foreign-investment-in-the-Dubai-housing-market.pdf", "audit_flag_id": "alstadsaeter-collin-planterose-zucman-okland-2024-dubai-housing-note#1", "audit_page": "https://saez-zucman-audit-replication.vercel.app/original/p/alstadsaeter-collin-planterose-zucman-okland-2024-dubai-housing-note.html", "facts": "right", "headline_number": "changes", "shown_with": "data released later", "claim_overstated": null, "our_note": "The authors' September 2025 paper splits the same $98.1 billion by residence: the offshore share is about 30%, not 43.8%. Dubai stays far above the other cities.", "second_pass_grade": null, "added_note": null }, { "rank": 32, "in_random_30": false, "authors": "Annette Alstadsæter, Sarah Godar, Panayiotis Nicolaides, Gabriel Zucman", "authors_short": "Alstadsæter et al.", "title": "Global Tax Evasion Report 2024", "citation": "EU Tax Observatory report, October 2023", "work_url": "https://www.taxobservatory.eu/www-site/uploads/2023/10/global_tax_evasion_report_24.pdf", "audit_flag_id": "alstadsaeter-godar-nicolaides-zucman-2023-global-tax-evasion-report-2024#1", "audit_page": "https://saez-zucman-audit-replication.vercel.app/original/p/alstadsaeter-godar-nicolaides-zucman-2023-global-tax-evasion-report-2024.html", "facts": "right", "headline_number": "changes", "shown_with": "data released later", "claim_overstated": null, "our_note": "The 2021-22 points were projections; the same team's July 2026 series gives a 6.9% loss share, not nearly 10%. The $1 trillion level survives.", "second_pass_grade": null, "added_note": null }, { "rank": 33, "in_random_30": false, "authors": "Annette Alstadsæter, Sarah Godar, Panayiotis Nicolaides, Gabriel Zucman", "authors_short": "Alstadsæter et al.", "title": "Global Tax Evasion Report 2024", "citation": "EU Tax Observatory report, October 2023", "work_url": null, "audit_flag_id": "alstadsaeter-godar-nicolaides-zucman-2023-global-tax-evasion-report-2024#2", "audit_page": "https://saez-zucman-audit-replication.vercel.app/original/p/alstadsaeter-godar-nicolaides-zucman-2023-global-tax-evasion-report-2024.html", "facts": "right", "headline_number": "depends on a disputed choice of method", "shown_with": null, "claim_overstated": null, "our_note": null, "second_pass_grade": "questionable", "added_note": null }, { "rank": 34, "in_random_30": false, "authors": "Annette Alstadsæter, Sarah Godar, Panayiotis Nicolaides, Gabriel Zucman", "authors_short": "Alstadsæter et al.", "title": "Global Tax Evasion Report 2024", "citation": "EU Tax Observatory report, October 2023", "work_url": null, "audit_flag_id": "alstadsaeter-godar-nicolaides-zucman-2023-global-tax-evasion-report-2024#3", "audit_page": "https://saez-zucman-audit-replication.vercel.app/original/p/alstadsaeter-godar-nicolaides-zucman-2023-global-tax-evasion-report-2024.html", "facts": "right", "headline_number": "depends on a disputed choice of method", "shown_with": null, "claim_overstated": null, "our_note": null, "second_pass_grade": "defensible, stated in the paper", "added_note": null }, { "rank": 35, "in_random_30": false, "authors": "Annette Alstadsæter, Niels Johannesen, Ségal Le Guern Herry, Gabriel Zucman", "authors_short": "Alstadsæter et al.", "title": "Global Financial Transparency and Offshore Wealth Accumulation", "citation": "NBER Working Paper 35505, July 2026", "work_url": null, "audit_flag_id": "alstadsaeter-johannesen-leguernherry-zucman-2026-global-financial-transparency#1", "audit_page": "https://saez-zucman-audit-replication.vercel.app/original/p/alstadsaeter-johannesen-leguernherry-zucman-2026-global-financial-transparency.html", "facts": "right", "headline_number": "does not change", "shown_with": null, "claim_overstated": true, "our_note": "The numbers reproduce. The before-and-after difference is never tested and is not significant, so calling it established is overstated.", "second_pass_grade": null, "added_note": null }, { "rank": 36, "in_random_30": false, "authors": "Annette Alstadsæter, Niels Johannesen, Ségal Le Guern Herry, Gabriel Zucman", "authors_short": "Alstadsæter et al.", "title": "Global Financial Transparency and Offshore Wealth Accumulation", "citation": "NBER Working Paper 35505, July 2026", "work_url": null, "audit_flag_id": "alstadsaeter-johannesen-leguernherry-zucman-2026-global-financial-transparency#2", "audit_page": "https://saez-zucman-audit-replication.vercel.app/original/p/alstadsaeter-johannesen-leguernherry-zucman-2026-global-financial-transparency.html", "facts": "right", "headline_number": "does not change", "shown_with": null, "claim_overstated": true, "our_note": "The estimates stand. The paper's Table A.2 contradicts its sentence that the non-haven effects are 'almost identical'.", "second_pass_grade": null, "added_note": null }, { "rank": 37, "in_random_30": false, "authors": "Annette Alstadsæter, Niels Johannesen, Ségal Le Guern Herry, Gabriel Zucman", "authors_short": "Alstadsæter et al.", "title": "Global Financial Transparency and Offshore Wealth Accumulation", "citation": "NBER Working Paper 35505, July 2026", "work_url": null, "audit_flag_id": "alstadsaeter-johannesen-leguernherry-zucman-2026-global-financial-transparency#3", "audit_page": "https://saez-zucman-audit-replication.vercel.app/original/p/alstadsaeter-johannesen-leguernherry-zucman-2026-global-financial-transparency.html", "facts": "right", "headline_number": "depends on a disputed choice of method", "shown_with": null, "claim_overstated": null, "our_note": null, "second_pass_grade": "defensible, stated in the paper", "added_note": null }, { "rank": 38, "in_random_30": false, "authors": "Annette Alstadsæter, Niels Johannesen, Gabriel Zucman", "authors_short": "Alstadsæter et al.", "title": "Who Owns the Wealth in Tax Havens? Macro Evidence and Implications for Global Inequality", "citation": "Journal of Public Economics 162: 89-100", "work_url": null, "audit_flag_id": "alstadsaeter-johannesen-zucman-2018-who-owns-wealth-tax-havens#1", "audit_page": "https://saez-zucman-audit-replication.vercel.app/original/p/alstadsaeter-johannesen-zucman-2018-who-owns-wealth-tax-havens.html", "facts": "right", "headline_number": "depends on a disputed choice of method", "shown_with": null, "claim_overstated": null, "our_note": null, "second_pass_grade": "defensible, stated in the paper", "added_note": null }, { "rank": 39, "in_random_30": false, "authors": "Annette Alstadsæter, Niels Johannesen, Gabriel Zucman", "authors_short": "Alstadsæter et al.", "title": "Who Owns the Wealth in Tax Havens? Macro Evidence and Implications for Global Inequality", "citation": "Journal of Public Economics 162: 89-100", "work_url": null, "audit_flag_id": "alstadsaeter-johannesen-zucman-2018-who-owns-wealth-tax-havens#2", "audit_page": "https://saez-zucman-audit-replication.vercel.app/original/p/alstadsaeter-johannesen-zucman-2018-who-owns-wealth-tax-havens.html", "facts": "right", "headline_number": "depends on a disputed choice of method", "shown_with": null, "claim_overstated": null, "our_note": null, "second_pass_grade": "defensible, not stated", "added_note": null }, { "rank": 40, "in_random_30": false, "authors": "Annette Alstadsæter, Niels Johannesen, Gabriel Zucman", "authors_short": "Alstadsæter et al.", "title": "Who Owns the Wealth in Tax Havens? Macro Evidence and Implications for Global Inequality", "citation": "Journal of Public Economics 162: 89-100", "work_url": "https://gabriel-zucman.eu/files/AJZ2018.pdf", "audit_flag_id": "alstadsaeter-johannesen-zucman-2018-who-owns-wealth-tax-havens#3", "audit_page": "https://saez-zucman-audit-replication.vercel.app/original/p/alstadsaeter-johannesen-zucman-2018-who-owns-wealth-tax-havens.html", "facts": "right", "headline_number": "changes", "shown_with": "material available at the time", "claim_overstated": null, "our_note": "The authors' code keeps a 2006 value for Venezuela against the paper's stated rule; on the rule, Venezuela falls from 64% to about 25% of GDP.", "second_pass_grade": null, "added_note": null }, { "rank": 41, "in_random_30": false, "authors": "Facundo Alvaredo, Lucas Chancel, Thomas Piketty, Emmanuel Saez, Gabriel Zucman", "authors_short": "Alvaredo et al.", "title": "World Inequality Report 2018", "citation": "World Inequality Lab, 2017; Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press (Belknap), 2018", "work_url": "https://wir2018.wid.world/files/download/wir2018-full-report-english.pdf", "audit_flag_id": "alvaredo-chancel-piketty-saez-zucman-2017-world-inequality-report-2018#1", "audit_page": "https://saez-zucman-audit-replication.vercel.app/original/p/alvaredo-chancel-piketty-saez-zucman-2017-world-inequality-report-2018.html", "facts": "right", "headline_number": "changes", "shown_with": "material available at the time", "claim_overstated": null, "our_note": "An undocumented adjustment to Middle East incomes for 1980-84 sits in the published code; without it, world income growth per adult is 53%, not 60%.", "second_pass_grade": null, "added_note": null }, { "rank": 42, "in_random_30": false, "authors": "Facundo Alvaredo, Lucas Chancel, Thomas Piketty, Emmanuel Saez, Gabriel Zucman", "authors_short": "Alvaredo et al.", "title": "Distributional National Accounts", "citation": "In J.E. Stiglitz, J.-P. Fitoussi and M. Durand (eds.), For Good Measure: Advancing Research on Well-being Metrics Beyond GDP, ch. 6, OECD Publishing 2018; The New Press 2019 (pp. 181-207)", "work_url": null, "audit_flag_id": "alvaredo-chancel-piketty-saez-zucman-2018-dina-for-good-measure#1", "audit_page": "https://saez-zucman-audit-replication.vercel.app/original/p/alvaredo-chancel-piketty-saez-zucman-2018-dina-for-good-measure.html", "facts": "right", "headline_number": "depends on a disputed choice of method", "shown_with": null, "claim_overstated": null, "our_note": null, "second_pass_grade": "cannot tell", "added_note": null }, { "rank": 43, "in_random_30": false, "authors": "Facundo Alvaredo, Lucas Chancel, Thomas Piketty, Emmanuel Saez, Gabriel Zucman", "authors_short": "Alvaredo et al.", "title": "The Elephant Curve of Global Inequality and Growth", "citation": "AEA Papers and Proceedings 108: 103-108", "work_url": "https://gabriel-zucman.eu/files/ACPSZ2018.pdf", "audit_flag_id": "alvaredo-chancel-piketty-saez-zucman-2018-elephant-curve#1", "audit_page": "https://saez-zucman-audit-replication.vercel.app/original/p/alvaredo-chancel-piketty-saez-zucman-2018-elephant-curve.html", "facts": "right", "headline_number": "changes", "shown_with": "material available at the time", "claim_overstated": null, "our_note": "The same code adjustment as in 41 and 45; without it, top 1% growth is 79%, not 101%, and the top 1% share rises 2.98 points, not 4.28. The elephant shape survives.", "second_pass_grade": null, "added_note": null }, { "rank": 44, "in_random_30": false, "authors": "Facundo Alvaredo, Lucas Chancel, Thomas Piketty, Emmanuel Saez, Gabriel Zucman", "authors_short": "Alvaredo et al.", "title": "Towards a System of Distributional National Accounts: Methods and Global Inequality Estimates from WID.world", "citation": "Economie et Statistique / Economics and Statistics 517-518-519: 41-59 (special issue 'Beyond GDP')", "work_url": null, "audit_flag_id": "alvaredo-chancel-piketty-saez-zucman-2020-towards-system-dina#1", "audit_page": "https://saez-zucman-audit-replication.vercel.app/original/p/alvaredo-chancel-piketty-saez-zucman-2020-towards-system-dina.html", "facts": "right", "headline_number": "does not change", "shown_with": null, "claim_overstated": true, "our_note": "The numbers reproduce. The Gini is flat, so 'global inequality has increased' holds only for measures sensitive to the top.", "second_pass_grade": null, "added_note": null }, { "rank": 45, "in_random_30": false, "authors": "Facundo Alvaredo, Lucas Chancel, Thomas Piketty, Emmanuel Saez, Gabriel Zucman", "authors_short": "Alvaredo et al.", "title": "Towards a System of Distributional National Accounts: Methods and Global Inequality Estimates from WID.world", "citation": "Economie et Statistique / Economics and Statistics 517-518-519: 41-59 (special issue 'Beyond GDP')", "work_url": "https://gabriel-zucman.eu/files/Alvaredoetal2020.pdf", "audit_flag_id": "alvaredo-chancel-piketty-saez-zucman-2020-towards-system-dina#2", "audit_page": "https://saez-zucman-audit-replication.vercel.app/original/p/alvaredo-chancel-piketty-saez-zucman-2020-towards-system-dina.html", "facts": "right", "headline_number": "changes", "shown_with": "material available at the time", "claim_overstated": null, "our_note": "The code sets Middle East incomes for 1980-84 below the authors' own inputs; without that step, the rise in the top 1% share falls from 4.28 to 2.98 points.", "second_pass_grade": null, "added_note": null }, { "rank": 46, "in_random_30": false, "authors": "Facundo Alvaredo, Anthony B. 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"https://prod.wid.world/www-site/uploads/2025/10/WorldInequalityLab_WP2025_25_-Equality-and-Development_A-Comparative-Historical-Perspective-1800-2025_Final.pdf", "audit_flag_id": "andreescu-et-al-2025-equality-and-development#2", "audit_page": "https://saez-zucman-audit-replication.vercel.app/original/p/andreescu-et-al-2025-equality-and-development.html", "facts": "right", "headline_number": "changes", "shown_with": "material available at the time", "claim_overstated": null, "our_note": "The released code and data do not reproduce Tables 3 and 4; the growth coefficient is 0.041, not 0.090, so '0.9 points per 10 points' becomes about 0.4.", "second_pass_grade": null, "added_note": null }, { "rank": 49, "in_random_30": false, "authors": "Marie Andreescu, Manuel Arias-Osorio, Luis Bauluz, Nitin Kumar Bharti, Philipp Bothe, Pierre Brassac, Lucas Chancel, Mauricio De Rosa et al.", "authors_short": "Andreescu et al.", "title": "Equality and Development: A Comparative and Historical 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"andreescu-et-al-2025-equality-and-development#4", "audit_page": "https://saez-zucman-audit-replication.vercel.app/original/p/andreescu-et-al-2025-equality-and-development.html", "facts": "could not check", "headline_number": "could not check", "shown_with": null, "claim_overstated": null, "our_note": null, "second_pass_grade": null, "added_note": null }, { "rank": 51, "in_random_30": false, "authors": "Marie Andreescu, Manuel Arias-Osorio, Luis Bauluz, Nitin Kumar Bharti, Philipp Bothe, Pierre Brassac, Lucas Chancel, Mauricio De Rosa et al.", "authors_short": "Andreescu et al.", "title": "Equality and Development: A Comparative and Historical Perspective 1800-2025", "citation": "World Inequality Lab Working Paper 2025/25, October 2025", "work_url": null, "audit_flag_id": "andreescu-et-al-2025-equality-and-development#5", "audit_page": "https://saez-zucman-audit-replication.vercel.app/original/p/andreescu-et-al-2025-equality-and-development.html", "facts": "right", "headline_number": "depends on a disputed choice of method", "shown_with": null, "claim_overstated": null, "our_note": null, "second_pass_grade": "questionable", "added_note": null }, { "rank": 52, "in_random_30": false, "authors": "Pierre Bachas, Matthew Fisher-Post, Anders Jensen, Gabriel Zucman", "authors_short": "Bachas et al.", "title": "Globalization, Capital Taxation, and Development: Evidence from a Macro-Historical Database", "citation": "American Economic Journal: Applied Economics 18(4): 509-549", "work_url": null, "audit_flag_id": "bachas-fisherpost-jensen-zucman-2022-capital-taxation-development-globalization#1", "audit_page": "https://saez-zucman-audit-replication.vercel.app/original/p/bachas-fisherpost-jensen-zucman-2022-capital-taxation-development-globalization.html", "facts": "right", "headline_number": "depends on a disputed choice of method", "shown_with": null, "claim_overstated": null, "our_note": null, "second_pass_grade": "defensible, stated in the paper", "added_note": null }, { "rank": 53, "in_random_30": false, "authors": "Pierre Bachas, Helena Hernández, Valentina Laverde, Juliana Londoño-Vélez, Gabriel Zucman", "authors_short": "Bachas et al.", "title": "Automatic Exchanges of Information and Offshore Tax Compliance: Evidence from Colombia", "citation": "Working paper, June 2026 (SSRN 7122974)", "work_url": null, "audit_flag_id": "bachas-hernandez-laverde-londonovelez-zucman-2026-aeoi-colombia#1", "audit_page": "https://saez-zucman-audit-replication.vercel.app/original/p/bachas-hernandez-laverde-londonovelez-zucman-2026-aeoi-colombia.html", "facts": "right", "headline_number": "depends on a disputed choice of method", "shown_with": null, "claim_overstated": null, "our_note": null, "second_pass_grade": "defensible, stated in the paper", "added_note": null }, { "rank": 54, "in_random_30": false, "authors": "Pierre Bachas, Helena Hernández, Valentina Laverde, Juliana Londoño-Vélez, Gabriel Zucman", "authors_short": "Bachas et al.", "title": "Automatic Exchanges of Information and Offshore Tax Compliance: Evidence from Colombia", "citation": "Working paper, June 2026 (SSRN 7122974)", "work_url": "https://gabriel-zucman.eu/files/BHLLZ2026.pdf", "audit_flag_id": "bachas-hernandez-laverde-londonovelez-zucman-2026-aeoi-colombia#4", "audit_page": "https://saez-zucman-audit-replication.vercel.app/original/p/bachas-hernandez-laverde-londonovelez-zucman-2026-aeoi-colombia.html", "facts": "right", "headline_number": "changes", "shown_with": "material available at the time", "claim_overstated": null, "our_note": "The abstract says enforcement explains 22-28% of the rise in reported offshore wealth. The paper defines that rise as financial wealth but takes its rate from the all-asset rows of its own Table A.6, which also has financial-asset rows. With those rows the share is about 19% (19.3% level, 19.1% log), and the combined 60-65% becomes about 57%. The change is small and inside the paper's standard errors.", "second_pass_grade": "questionable", "added_note": "Added 9 November 2026 by a second pass, after the authors' reply window (29 October letter, 4 November reminder, replies asked by 6 November) closed with no reply." }, { "rank": 55, "in_random_30": false, "authors": "Mona Baraké, Paul-Emmanuel Chouc, Theresa Neef, Gabriel Zucman", "authors_short": "Baraké et al.", "title": "Revenue Effects of the Global Minimum Tax Under Pillar Two", "citation": "Intertax 50(10): 689-710", "work_url": null, "audit_flag_id": "barake-chouc-neef-zucman-2022-revenue-effects-global-minimum-tax#1", "audit_page": "https://saez-zucman-audit-replication.vercel.app/original/p/barake-chouc-neef-zucman-2022-revenue-effects-global-minimum-tax.html", "facts": "right", "headline_number": "depends on a disputed choice of method", "shown_with": null, "claim_overstated": null, "our_note": null, "second_pass_grade": "defensible, stated in the paper", "added_note": null }, { "rank": 56, "in_random_30": false, "authors": "Thomas Blanchet, Léonard Mouillet, Emmanuel Saez, Gabriel Zucman", "authors_short": "Blanchet et al.", "title": "Real-Time Inequality", "citation": "Journal of Public Economics 260: 105701", "work_url": null, "audit_flag_id": "blanchet-saez-zucman-2022-real-time-inequality#1", "audit_page": "https://saez-zucman-audit-replication.vercel.app/original/p/blanchet-saez-zucman-2022-real-time-inequality.html", "facts": "right", "headline_number": "does not change", "shown_with": null, "claim_overstated": true, "our_note": "The numbers stand. The authors' own real-time releases showed +0.25 points against +1.42 final, so the claim of real-time accuracy is overstated.", "second_pass_grade": null, "added_note": null }, { "rank": 57, "in_random_30": false, "authors": "Hjalte Fejerskov Boas, Niels Johannesen, Claus Thustrup Kreiner, Lauge Truels Larsen, Gabriel Zucman", "authors_short": "Boas et al.", "title": "Taxing Capital in a Globalized World: The Effects of Automatic Information Exchange", "citation": "NBER WP 32714 (July 2024), revised September 2026", "work_url": null, "audit_flag_id": "boas-johannesen-kreiner-larsen-zucman-2024-automatic-information-exchange#1", "audit_page": "https://saez-zucman-audit-replication.vercel.app/original/p/boas-johannesen-kreiner-larsen-zucman-2024-automatic-information-exchange.html", "facts": "right", "headline_number": "does not change", "shown_with": null, "claim_overstated": true, "our_note": "The 70% central estimate stands. The 56-95% range leaves out the uncertainty in one input, so the stated precision is overstated.", "second_pass_grade": null, "added_note": null }, { "rank": 58, "in_random_30": false, "authors": "Sebastián Bustos, Dina Pomeranz, Juan Carlos Suárez Serrato, José Vila-Belda, Gabriel Zucman", "authors_short": "Bustos et al.", "title": "The Race Between Tax Enforcement and Tax Planning: Evidence From a Natural Experiment in Chile", "citation": "NBER WP 30114 (2022); forthcoming, American Economic Journal: Economic Policy (per author website)", "work_url": null, "audit_flag_id": "bustos-pomeranz-suarezserrato-vilabelda-zucman-2022-race-tax-enforcement-tax-planning-chile#1", "audit_page": "https://saez-zucman-audit-replication.vercel.app/original/p/bustos-pomeranz-suarezserrato-vilabelda-zucman-2022-race-tax-enforcement-tax-planning-chile.html", "facts": "right", "headline_number": "does not change", "shown_with": null, "claim_overstated": true, "our_note": "The estimates reproduce. The confidence intervals cannot rule out recovering about half the gap, so 'shown ineffective' is overstated.", "second_pass_grade": null, "added_note": null }, { "rank": 59, "in_random_30": false, "authors": "Sebastián Bustos, Dina Pomeranz, Juan Carlos Suárez Serrato, José Vila-Belda, Gabriel Zucman", "authors_short": "Bustos et al.", "title": "The Race Between Tax Enforcement and Tax Planning: Evidence From a Natural Experiment in Chile", "citation": "NBER WP 30114 (2022); forthcoming, American Economic Journal: Economic Policy (per author website)", "work_url": null, "audit_flag_id": "bustos-pomeranz-suarezserrato-vilabelda-zucman-2022-race-tax-enforcement-tax-planning-chile#2", "audit_page": "https://saez-zucman-audit-replication.vercel.app/original/p/bustos-pomeranz-suarezserrato-vilabelda-zucman-2022-race-tax-enforcement-tax-planning-chile.html", "facts": "right", "headline_number": "does not change", "shown_with": null, "claim_overstated": true, "our_note": "The estimates stand. 'Reject any substantial reduction' holds only for some specifications; others cannot reject reductions of 50-100%.", "second_pass_grade": null, "added_note": null }, { "rank": 60, "in_random_30": false, "authors": "Lucas Chancel, Thomas Piketty, Emmanuel Saez, Gabriel Zucman", "authors_short": "Chancel et al.", "title": "World Inequality Report 2022", "citation": "World Inequality Lab, Dec 2021; Harvard University Press, 2022", "work_url": null, "audit_flag_id": "chancel-piketty-saez-zucman-2021-world-inequality-report-2022#1", "audit_page": "https://saez-zucman-audit-replication.vercel.app/original/p/chancel-piketty-saez-zucman-2021-world-inequality-report-2022.html", "facts": "right", "headline_number": "depends on a disputed choice of method", "shown_with": null, "claim_overstated": null, "our_note": null, "second_pass_grade": "defensible, stated in the paper", "added_note": null }, { "rank": 61, "in_random_30": false, "authors": "Raj Chetty, Nathaniel Hendren, Patrick Kline, Emmanuel Saez, Nicholas Turner", "authors_short": "Chetty et al.", "title": "Is the United States Still a Land of Opportunity? Recent Trends in Intergenerational Mobility", "citation": "American Economic Review: Papers & Proceedings 104(5): 141-147", "work_url": null, "audit_flag_id": "chetty-etal-2014-still-land-of-opportunity-trends#1", "audit_page": "https://saez-zucman-audit-replication.vercel.app/original/p/chetty-etal-2014-still-land-of-opportunity-trends.html", "facts": "right", "headline_number": "depends on a disputed choice of method", "shown_with": null, "claim_overstated": null, "our_note": null, "second_pass_grade": "defensible, stated in the paper", "added_note": null }, { "rank": 62, "in_random_30": false, "authors": "Raj Chetty, Nathaniel Hendren, Patrick Kline, Emmanuel Saez, Nicholas Turner", "authors_short": "Chetty et al.", "title": "Is the United States Still a Land of Opportunity? 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A small difference.", "second_pass_grade": null, "added_note": null }, { "rank": 144, "in_random_30": false, "authors": "Gabriel Zucman", "authors_short": "Zucman", "title": "Can a Wealth Tax Work?", "citation": "In O. Blanchard and D. 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Revenue is unaffected.", "second_pass_grade": null, "added_note": null }, { "rank": 146, "in_random_30": false, "authors": "Gabriel Zucman", "authors_short": "Zucman", "title": "The Billionaire Tax: A (Modest) Proposal for the 21st Century", "citation": "UNU-WIDER Annual Lecture 28 (2025); Intertax 54(1): 7-8 (2026), special issue 'The Zucman billionaire tax'", "work_url": null, "audit_flag_id": "zucman-2025-billionaire-tax-modest-proposal#1", "audit_page": "https://saez-zucman-audit-replication.vercel.app/original/p/zucman-2025-billionaire-tax-modest-proposal.html", "facts": "right", "headline_number": "depends on a disputed choice of method", "shown_with": null, "claim_overstated": null, "our_note": null, "second_pass_grade": "defensible, not stated", "added_note": null }, { "rank": 147, "in_random_30": false, "authors": "Gabriel Zucman, Amory Gethin, Madeleine Péron", "authors_short": "Zucman et al.", "title": "Introduction : Où est l'argent ?", "citation": "Regards croisés sur l'économie no. 24: 10-17 (2019)", "work_url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20220309141544/https://www.cairn.info/revue-regards-croises-sur-l-economie-2019-1-page-10.htm", "audit_flag_id": "zucman-etal-2019-ou-est-l-argent#1", "audit_page": "https://saez-zucman-audit-replication.vercel.app/original/p/zucman-etal-2019-ou-est-l-argent.html", "facts": "right", "headline_number": "changes", "shown_with": "material available at the time", "claim_overstated": null, "our_note": "The interview says the share doubled from 20% to 40%; the authors' own series give about 24% to 40%, a rise of about 1.6 times.", "second_pass_grade": null, "added_note": null } ] }